Theresa May's election gamble

The big news item this week is that the Prime Minister is to call a general election to take place on 8 June 2017.  On this day she will have been Prime Minister for less than eleven months.

In the past fifty years, four people have become Prime Minister without first winning a general election: James Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown, and Theresa May.  When Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair as Prime Minister, there was a lot of talk in the press about calling an early general election.  Many commentators felt that he had a duty to call an election so as to provide himself with a clear mandate to rule; however I cannot recall any similar reaction to either James Callaghan or John Major becoming Prime Minister.  Of the three, John Major alone went on to win a general election as Prime Minister.

Theresa May had not planned to go to the country this soon, but apparently she now wants to make clear that the public is on her side as the Brexit process unfolds.  Many opponents of Brexit have been demanding a second referendum, but instead we are getting a general election.  Mrs May will be campaigning on Brexit, as well as on her many failings as Prime Minister, whereas the Liberal Democrats are hoping to clean up on the anti-Brexit vote.  As a result, some commentators are predicting a poor outcome for the Labour Party.

It is also reported that a lot of people object to having another general election so soon after the last one, and will not be voting as a result.

There have been fifteen general elections in the past sixty years.  Nine of these have seen an increase in turnout over the preceding general election, and six have seen a decrease in turnout.  Two of these – in 1966 and 1974 - took place shortly after the preceding general election, and both saw a reduction in turnout, but not a large reduction.

Every general election between 1955 and 1997 saw a turnout of between seventy-one and seventy-nine percent.  The 2001 general election saw a much lower turnout of below sixty percent; and while each of the subsequent three general elections have seen an increase in turnout, it remained below two thirds of the electorate in 2015.

This will undoubtedly be an unusual general election, largely owing to Brexit.  If the comments sections of the national press are to be believed, then many people will be voting Conservative for the first time, presumably to show support for Brexit.  UKIP has lost by defection its one remaining MP, and is probably heading for oblivion.  Meanwhile, a lot of tactical voting is expected in the Brexit camp.

I will not be voting.  A vote for the Conservative Party may be a vote for Brexit, but it is also a vote for another five years of Tory misrule.

Related previous posts include:
The post-referendum political landscape
The Labour Party is far from dead