A northern transport renaissance

The government has claimed that it wants to build a high speed rail link in the north of England.  Apparently this would connect Newcastle Upon Tyne with Manchester, and would take in Sheffield.   The estimated cost would be £15billion, although the true cost would almost certainly be higher.  Even if the estimated cost is correct, then it still represents £234 for every man, woman, and child in the country.

The north of England is bisected by a range of hills called the Pennines, and this range of hills has always formed a serious impediment to east-west transport.  Between the valley of the River Tyne in the north and the valley of the River Trent in the south is a distance of nearly two hundred miles of almost continuous uplands, with the only significant break being the Aire Gap.  As this runs from south east to north west, it is of limited use to transport planners.

An example of how this affects rail travel is the journey time from York to Liverpool.  Liverpool is roughly eighty-seven miles from York, whereas the distance from central London to Bournemouth is slightly greater at around ninety-three miles. Yet in spite of this the train journey from York to Liverpool Lime Street takes roughly twenty minutes longer than the train journey from London Waterloo to Bournemouth.

In short it appears likely that a new railway line which tunnels under the Pennines could provide a considerable economic benefit to the north of England. Then again, where would that benefit originate?  Here are some possibilities.

Businesses in the south relocate to the north.  While this benefits the north, it is at the expense of the south.  As far as the national economy is concerned, no new prosperity has been created.  Existing prosperity has merely been shuffled from A to B.

Businesses outside the UK relocate to northern England.  This too is merely the shuffling of existing prosperity, but at least in a way which benefits the whole of this country to some extent.

New businesses will arise.  In other words, shaving twenty minutes off the railway timetable will unleash a new entrepreneurial spirit in the north of England.  It might happen I suppose.

It is unsurprising that this policy should be announced with less than a year to go before the next general election.  Of course the government could have announced this policy a long time ago, but they were too busy increasing the aid budget.  The expected cost of this project is roughly similar to Britain's expenditure on overseas aid during the first two years that David Cameron was prime minister.

The government has long since committed itself to the lunacy of HS2, as well as the more reasonable Crossrail project, which it now plans to extend.  While the government does seem to be getting some things right, I can't help but wonder where the Conservative Party would be in the opinion polls if David Cameron had cut the overseas aid as soon as he took office, and if he had never committed to HS2.

Related previous posts include:
Shapps and the northern renaissance
The lunacy of HS2
HS2 Fat Cats