The revenge of the UKIP hamster

Much as I dislike UKIP, I will admit that I may have underestimated them.  Here is what I said about them just over a year ago:

Basically there are two problems with UKIP making an electoral breakthrough.  The first is the unwillingness of many people to vote for them in elections other than for the EU.  The second is the fact that the party has a history of being very badly led.

On the one hand, UKIP won 163 council seats in the elections on Thursday, compared with 427 for the LibDems and 1359 for the Tories - both of whom are supposed to have done badly.  Then again, the Tories and LibDems have both lost large numbers of seats, whereas Labour has increased its number of seats, but not by the sort of margin which suggests that they are on course for great things in the year ahead.

The increase in the number of seats held by UKIP is impressive, and it is notable that the Green Party is trying to talk up a far smaller increase in its number of council seats.

The impact of the surge in support for UKIP has been felt by other parties, and in two ways.  First, when UKIP win a seat from another party, it makes it harder for that party to control the council outright, or at all.  Second, even where UKIP do not win any seats, they can take sufficient votes away from one or more of the three main parties to determine who controls the council.

Then again, UKIP have had false dawns before.  Seats won are often lost soon after.  For example UKIP have lost councillors by defection and by their refusing to stand for re-election.  If UKIP want to flourish, they should support their councillors.

One Tory MP has been quoted as saying that many UKIP voters said on the doorstep that they were merely protesting, and that they would return to voting Tory at the general election next year.  If we leave aside the fact that many UKIP voters are disillusioned former Labour voters, then the possibility remains that people who are disillusioned with either the Labour Party or the Conservative Party today may become more rather than less disillusioned between now and the general election.

There has been a lot of criticism of UKIP in the press, and the party has also come in for a lot of abuse from communists.  Nevertheless this assault on two fronts has proven largely ineffective, and the press response to the surge in support for UKIP appears to be along the lines that the three main parties had it coming to them.

One former council leader has blamed UKIP voters for allowing Labour to win control of the council.  It might be more productive for him to blame the Conservative Party for alienating their voters.  It is probably true that the UKIP voters in that particular borough did not want a Labour council, which is what they got.  Nevertheless they presumably did not want a Conservative council either.

If you want UKIP to run your local council, then you will not achieve that by voting tactically for the communist Conservative Party.

Then again, maybe not all of the UKIP voters in that borough actually wanted a UKIP council.  Maybe none of them did.  Maybe they were merely registering a protest, in which case what were they protesting against?

There are of course many issues, but underlying all of them was a belief that the leaders of the three main parties just do not care about ordinary people.  One of the important issues is immigration.  Many people in recent years took to voting for the British National Party to express their disgust at Britain's ongoing policy of open door immigration.  The reaction to this from the establishment was one of undisguised contempt.  Mainstream politicians demonised the BNP, as did the fellow travelling national press, trade unions, and church leaders.

I remember at least one columnist in a national newspaper urging people who were unhappy about immigration to vote UKIP rather than BNP.  He did not however urge the three main parties to abandon their policy of open door immigration.

Now that columnist's wish has come true.  The digruntled voters of this once proud country have turned to UKIP, and in impressive numbers.  UKIP now have far more councillors than the BNP ever had, even at its peak of popularity.  Let the establishment rejoice.  I don't suppose they will, but this situation is entirely of their own making.

The results of the European Parliament elections will soon be announced, and we will then see the full extent to which the three main parties have suffered at the hands of a frustrated electorate.

Previous related posts include:
The UKIP hamster - who is to blame?
The return of the UKIP hamster
Cameron is no better than Miliband
Demon words aimed at UKIP