What to write about today? Homosexual marriages are now legal in this country. Nigel Farage is widely perceived to have won his televised debate with Nick Clegg. The Conservative Party appears to be rising in the opinion polls at the expense of Labour.
I have already made clear my distrust of opinion polls. I prefer to base my expectations of electoral success on the outcomes of real elections, and in the most recent parliamentary by-election the Conservative Party's retained vote did not rise. Neither did that of the Liberal Democrats. The British National Party did see a significant rise in its retained vote, although it remains below fifty percent.
I am not aware of any parliamentary by-elections pending at the moment, and so the next big test of electoral fortunes appear to be the European and local elections in late May.
I have already argued that the rise in support for UKIP may not last. Maybe it will. One thing I am certain of is that the Conservative Party could be enjoying far more support at the moment if it were not for the legalisation of homosexual marriage. There are two reasons for this.
A lot of people are opposed to homosexual marriage. Opinion polls suggest about one third. The point is that people who oppose it may well decide not to vote Conservative as a result, whereas people who support it are not necessarily going to vote Conservative as a result.
The second reason is that parliamentary time given to the legalisation of homosexual marriage is time that cannot be given to something more important - and it is hard to think of anything less important. Can't afford to pay your gas bill? Homosexual marriage is the answer. Is your neighbourhood blighted by vandalism? Homosexual marriage is the solution - or so it seems.
Conservative Party supporters who fear an electoral meltdown in May should reflect that David Cameron's support for homosexual marriage is arguably a major cause of that meldown. As for UKIP, they will not have my vote in May, but I expect they will manage pretty well without it.
Related previous posts include:
The return of the UKIP hamster
The weather, dear boy, the weather
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