The weather, dear boy, the weather

One of the most frequently heard quotes in British politics is the one attributed to Harold Macmillan (who was our Prime Minister more than fifty years ago): events, dear boy, events.  It is not known for certain that he ever uttered those words, but they are words that anyone who is interested in politics needs to learn about at some point.

As I write, the coalition government is in a mess.  The Conservatives  and Liberal Democrats have both seen their vote share fall in the recent by-election in Greater Manchester.  Both parties were outpolled by UKIP who took second place, and the Liberal Democrats failed to reach the five percent threshold needed to recover their deposit.

There will be a general election next year, and it is looking very much as though the Conservatives will lose a lot of seats, while the Liberal Democrats could realistically lose all of their seats.  The next big test of public opinion in this country will be the local elections and the European Parliament elections, both of which are expected to take place late in May.  UKIP are expected to poll well in the European Parliament elections, and so the Tories and LibDems will presumably be hoping for a favourable outcome in the local elections.

There are a number of factors which influence the popularity of the ruling party, but right now the floods are a major factor.  Much of Britain is affected by flooding, notably the south coast, the south west, and the Thames valley - and yet the weather still refuses to improve.  Rain and high winds are forecast for many areas.

The government cannot control the weather, although a lot of politicians clearly expect us to think otherwise.  What governments can do is to take seriously the likelihood of severe weather.  A lot of the victims of the recent flooding have been protesting that the government failed to dredge rivers.  While dredging rivers can make a difference though, the difference is often minimal.  It can reduce the severity of flooding, but is unlikely to prevent it altogether.

There have been calls for money currently being spent on overseas aid to be used instead to help flood victims, and yet the government offers us platitudes instead.  Then again, I wonder how many of the flood victims voted at the last general election for a political party which sought to abolish overseas aid so that the money could instead be spent in this country to the benefit of our own people.

I strongly suspect that the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties are doomed to fare very badly in the elections in May.  Even if the weather were to take a turn for the better in the next day or two, they would probably be on course for a setback.  Every day the severe weather continues is likely to translate into an extra dozen or so Conservative or Liberal Democrats losses in the local elections - not that I care of course.

Relate previous posts include:
The politics of flooding
Somerset matters more than Sochi
The road to Wythenshawe