I was talking to a man back in 2004. The European Parliament elections were looming, and he told me that he would be voting UKIP. I reminded him that there was another election the same day, and he did not reply that he would be voting UKIP in that election as well.
That is the nub of the matter. UKIP is a protest vote for the European Parliament elections. People who are serious about UKIP will vote for them in every election in which there is a UKIP candidate - and yes that includes town council and parish council elections.
Suppose you are a member of UKIP. You campaign in the European Parliament elections, and are impressed with the positive response you receive. Then a few months later you stand for election to your local council in a byelection, and poll a couple of dozen votes. Why should you bother being a member of UKIP if people ignore you in almost every election? Are you seriously going to wait patiently for the next European Parliament elections? Or are you going to quit the party and stop wasting your time on politics?
Things do seem to be changing now, with a lot of people saying they will vote UKIP on Thursday, and yet the party is still being tipped to win just fourteen percent of the vote overall. Depending on how the votes are spread, that might not win them a single council seat.
Basically there are two problems with UKIP making an electoral breakthrough. The first is the unwillingness of many people to vote for them in elections other than for the EU. The second is the fact that the party has a history of being very badly led.
Whether under the leadership of Nigel Farage or Lord Pearson, UKIP have treated their rank and file members with utter contempt. Councillors often feel that they are not supported, and at the last general election UKIP leader Lord Pearson urged people to vote Conservative in seats with UKIP candidates.
I make no apologies for comparing UKIP with a hamster.
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