A sense of the inevitable

A lot has changed since I began writing this blog more than three years ago.  One change is that I am now far more likely to believe in the power of the inevitable.

When Leo Tolstoy wrote War and Peace, he believed that all of history is an inevitable process which people cannot influence - not even supposedly powerful people like kings and emperors.  On the one hand, this might seem an utterly bizarre notion, but on the other hand there are always exceptions to just about any rule.

Consider football.  Suppose Everton play Swansea.  It is easy to envisage either team winning the match.  Now suppose that Tottenham play Chesterfield.  It is hard to imagine any realistic outcome other than a victory for Tottenham.

Tolstoy wrote his novel about the French invasion of Russia in 1812.  The invasion was a complete disaster which proved to be the beginning of the end for the Emperor Napoleon.

It is hard not to see a strong sense of inevitability about the events of 1812.  Napoleon led a very large army into Russia with little in the way of supplies.  It had apparently not occurred to him that it would be very difficult to keep such a large army supplied by foraging.  Many of his troops were killed in battle as he marched towards Moscow - notably at the Battle of Borodino - and many more died of hunger.

Eventually the French captured Moscow, but found that almost the entire population had fled.  As winter began to draw in, the French abandoned Moscow, and began the long march home. Tens of thousands of soldiers died from the effects of hunger and extreme cold, while many others were either killed in battle or murdered by Russian civilians.

But enough of history.  As I write, the British people are looking forward to the long-promised referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.  I have not so far spoken out about this, partly because I have a sense of inevitability.

I have previously said confidently that I expect Scotland to leave the United Kingdom at some point in the future, and now I confidently expect Britain to leave the European Union.  Even if the outcome of the referendum is a victory for staying in, then I still think it would be only a minor setback.  Nothing is more likely to bring the European Union to its knees than its own continued exisence.

As a final points, the European Union has nothing to do with the European Court of Human Rights.  That is an agency of the Council of Europe, an entirely separate body.

Related previous posts include:
Austerity versus democracy in Greece