MH17: who is to blame?

I had planned to write about something else, but I feel compelled to write about the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines aeroplane, but first some background.

On September 1 1983, the Soviet Union shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007.  All 269 people on board were killed.  The aeroplane had entered Soviet air space without permission, and the Soviet authorities apparently decided that is was a spy aeroplane.  The President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, called it an act of barbarism, which I won't argue with.

On July 3 1988, a ship of the United States navy - USS Vincennes - shot down Iran Air Flight 655.  All 290 people on board were killed.  The President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, did not call it an act of barbarism, and the captain of the Vincennes was never prosecuted as a war criminal. 

Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, presumably either by Ukrainian forces, or by Russian separatists in the Crimea, or else by the Russians. Let us consider the options.


This quote is from The Daily Mail:

Hours before the Malaysia Airlines plane came down, Ukrainian authorities said one of their fighter jets was shot down by an air-to-air missile from a Russian plane.

Ukrainian troops have also been fired upon by missiles from a village just across the border inside Russia.

On Monday a military transport plane was also shot down by a missile fired from Russian territory.

In other words, the Russians might be to blame, but if they did shoot down Flight MH17 then presumably they mistook it for a Ukrainian aeroplane.  I am not commenting on how likely that might be, but the Russians do not appear to have had any motive to shoot down this aeroplane except in a case of mistaken identity.

Russian separatists might also be to blame, but they too had no motive for shooting down a Korean aeroplane, and so if Russian separatists are to blame then presumably it would likewise have been a case of mistaken identity.

The Ukrainian authorities alone among the three suspects have a clear motive for shooting down Flight MH17, that being to pin the blame on the Russians.

I know what I believe.

Update: a newspaper report indicates that a rebel leader called Igor Strelkov claimed responsibility for shooting down MH17 in a Twitter post, and has posted video footage online in which he boasts about the destruction of the aeroplane.

While these reports may be genuine, they may also be a carefully orchestrated hoax.  For example, the Twitter account may not be genuine, and the video footage may relate to the previous shooting down of a Ukrainian aircraft.

I will believe that Igor Strelkov is to blame if the Russian government says so ... but will they?  Time will tell.

Another update: there is a lot of hostility towards Russia in the national press today.  I wonder how much hostility there would be towards the USA if the press believed that the USA was to blame for shooting down MH17.

Related previous posts include:
Why only three hours Mr Putin?
Vlad, get a life
Pompous claptrap from Tory veterans